Speech by Minister Chan Chun Sing at the Launch of “Navigating Uncertainty: Our Region In An Age of Flux” by Professor Joseph Liow, 13th S R Nathan Fellow

Good evening,

1.Pleasure to join you today for the launch of Professor Joseph Liow’s book "Navigating Uncertainty: Our Region in an Age of Flux."

2.Today, our world grapples with a confluence of economic, geopolitical and social forces that drives us to reassess Singapore’s strategies and approaches. This is where Joseph’s book makes an important contribution.

3.Are we surprised by the current state of affairs? Perhaps not.

1. The breakdown of the rules-based order, exemplified by conflicts around the globe today, underscores a world where established norms are increasingly challenged.
2. We are observing a troubling retreat from the global rules-based trade system to protectionism and industrial policies in various guises, undermining the economic interdependence that has been a cornerstone of global prosperity for the last few decades.
3. Meanwhile, political landscapes are shifting from consensus politics towards more extreme and polarised positions, accentuating the forces pulling societies apart. Domestic issues and international issues often reinforce one another.

4.Beyond all this, we are also having to deal with climate change and many other world issues.

5.Overall, these series of events contribute to a general sense of unease about the future and our place within it. This applies not just to Singapore, but to all parts of the world.

6.The question for us is, how do we navigate this age of uncertainty? Let me share three reflections from Joseph’s book– on Leadership, Mindsets, and Agency.

Leadership

7.Let me start with leadership. In such a world, leadership is paramount. There cannot be international cooperation and coherence of rules without domestic cohesion, consistency, and confidence.

8.We must be honest with our people about our challenges. Externalising our problems is never the solution; instead, we must look them squarely in the eye, and address them with transparency and resolve.

1. Global competition is fierce. But protectionism, while seemingly a quick fix, will not enhance global efficiency or improve our people’s lives in the long run.
2. Trade will require countries to adjust their industries and jobs. Key is to help our people to manage these adjustments. This applies to Singapore as it does to the rest of the world.
3. Rapid changes in technology could change or even displace jobs. We need to invest in education and training to help our people reskill themselves to seize opportunities and overcome challenges.
4. Fruits of economic growth may not naturally be distributed evenly. So, policy actions are required to ensure equitable access to opportunities, without which, the social compact will easily fracture.

9.These tasks demand leadership with honesty, gumption, and vision.

Mindsets

10.Next, mindsets. There cannot be international cooperation without a clear appreciation of the dynamics within partner countries.

1. While personalities matter, they are often reflections of deeper societal currents.
2. We need to understand the fears, concerns, and aspirations of the other party if we are to find spaces for feasible collaboration.

11.We must avoid the laziness of mind that reduces complex global issues to simplistic binaries such as: good versus evil, or democratic versus authoritarian, left versus right and so forth. These labels hinder our ability to find common ground.

12.Historical interpretations can both illuminate yet confine us. We are all familiar with the saying, “Those who do not read history are bound to repeat it”. Yet, those who are captured by history are also equally bound to repeat it. If we use old concepts, we become prisoners of those ideas.

13.Choosing sides in a polarised world is unconstructive. It takes a lot more effort to transcend divides, bridge differences, and find new possibilities for cooperation. But that is the only way to move forward, to foster peace and stability.

Agency

14.Third, agency. There cannot be international order without dialogue and cooperation.

15.A fragmented world, coupled with fractious domestic politics and fragile social compacts, creates a vicious cycle, often reinforcing one another. We must actively seek to engage with others to break this cycle.

1. It is through continuous engagement that we can build mutual trust and find common ground.
2. We must understand that our collective security and prosperity depend on our ability to work together.

Conclusion

16.To conclude, what can Singapore do to navigate this age of heightened uncertainty?

17.First, we need leaders with integrity, gumption, and foresight. Leaders who are courageous to communicate the truth, make tough decisions, and work towards sustainable solutions.

1. A politically convenient answer to the wrong question is worse than a politically tough answer to the right question.

18.Second, we must deepen our understanding of the global forces at play, look beyond the personalities and ask ourselves how all these impact partner countries’ motivations and actions. This will allow us to add value, create relevance for ourselves, and find common ground to cooperate.

1. This is one particular point that I like about Joseph’s book. He says, instead of asking ourselves, “Which side do we choose?” or “Who do we choose?”, the more important question is to ask ourselves, “How do we make others choose us?”
2. We are a partner of choice. If we are a partner of choice, we must deeply understand the motivation of our potential partners. What can we do together, in order for us to create space to move forward together?
3. I hope more and more Singaporeans will join us in the Government and academia to ask this question. Not who will we choose, but how can we not choose, and how we can make others choose us.

19.Lastly, we must work with like-minded countries and corporations to shape the future. All of us have agency.

1. The US and China may be the two biggest powers in the world. But they are about one-third of the global GDP. The rest of us – the remaining two-thirds – have both agency and responsibility to act.
2. The greater the challenges, the greater the need to keep exploring solutions with both friends and foes.
3. Only by collaborating with the global community can we help steer the world towards a more stable and prosperous future.

20.In closing, I would like to thank Joseph for his contribution to our understanding of the global order and Southeast Asia’s dynamics.

1. His book, hopefully, is more than just a timely scholarly contribution.
2. I hope his book will challenge us – policymakers, researchers, corporations, and citizens – to envision a future Singapore that not only navigates uncertainty but a future where Singapore will continue to defy the odds of history.
3. I invite you all to spend some time in the pages of the book. May it enlighten your discussions, and our constant search to create relevance for Singapore in a turbulent world.

21.Thank you.